基于LEAP模型的城市交通低碳发展路径研究——以广州市为例     

黄莹  郭洪旭  廖翠萍  赵黛青 《气候变化研究进展》2019,15(6):670-683

以广州市为例,应用长期能源替代规划系统（LEAP）模型,通过设置政策情景、低碳情景和绿色低碳情景,模拟不同发展情景下广州交通领域未来的能源消费需求和CO₂排放趋势,分析城市低碳发展的方向和路径。结果显示,随着城镇化进程的加快和生产生活运输需求的增加,广州交通领域碳排放总量将持续增长,但增长速度有所放缓。政策情景下,广州交通领域的CO₂排放将于2035年左右达到峰值,严重滞后于广州市提出的碳排放总量达峰目标;低碳和绿色低碳情景下,通过加大低碳政策措施的力度,达峰时间有望分别提前到2025年和2023年。要实现城市交通的低碳发展,促进交通碳排放提前达峰,需要大力发展铁路和水路运输,全面落实公交优先发展战略,有效控制小汽车数量和出行频率,不断提高交通工具的清洁化和能效水平,逐步形成各种运输方式协调发展的综合交通运输体系,推动城市交通低碳发展。  相似文献   

Twenty-five years of spectral UV-B measurements over Canada,Europe and Japan: Trends and effects from changes in ozone,aerosols, clouds,and surface reflectivity     

《Comptes Rendus Geoscience》2018,350(7):393-402

Spectral UV records of solar irradiance at stations over Europe, Canada, and Japan were used to study long-term trends at 307.5 nm for a 25-year period, from 1992 to 2016. Ground-based measurements of total ozone, as well as satellite measurements of the Aerosol Index, the Total Cloud Cover and the surface reflectivity were also used in order to attribute the estimated changes of the UV to the corresponding changes of these factors. The present study shows that over the Northern Hemisphere, the long-term changes in UV-B radiation reaching the Earth's surface vary significantly over different locations, and that the main drivers of these variations are changes in aerosols and total ozone. At high latitudes, part of the observed changes may also be attributed to changes in the surface reflectivity. Over Japan, the UV-B irradiance at 307.5 nm has increased significantly by ∼3%/decade during the past 25 years, possibly due to the corresponding significant decrease of its absorption by aerosols. It was found that the greatest part of this increase took place before the mid-2000s. The only European station, over which UV radiation increases significantly, is that of Thessaloniki, Greece. Analysis of the clear-sky irradiance for the particular station shows increasing irradiance at 307.5 nm by ∼3.5%/decade during the entire period of study, with an increasing rate of change during the last decade, possibly again due to the decreasing absorption by aerosols.  相似文献   

基于多模式集成冬半年气温预报偏差修正     

齐铎  刘松涛  赵广娜  高梦竹 《气象与环境学报》2022,38(3):119-126

卡尔曼滤波递减平均方法对模式直接输出的气温预报进行订正,能有效提高预报准确率,但有时会造成显著负订正的现象,使订正预报效果反而不及模式直接输出。利用消除偏差集合平均方法(BREM)选择最优滑动训练期对2019年10月至2020年4月ECMWF预报(EC)、经过卡尔曼滤波递减平均法订正的预报(EC_COR)及中央台网格指导预报(SCMOC)等3种气温预报在黑龙江省的结果进行集成,并将BREM方法对EC_COR的修正效果进行评估,结果表明:不同预报结果都表现为冬季和夜间预报的准确率更低,气温偏低的11月至翌年1月更倾向于表现出预报较实况系统性偏高的特点。BREM方法能有效地修正EC_COR对EC负订正的现象,且可显著高于任何一种参与集成的单一预报效果。可在对单一模式进行卡尔曼滤波递减平均订正的基础上,进一步提升预报质量。另外,利用集成方法对高质量预报产品的融合(不局限于模式直接输出预报或是订正预报)可获取较单一预报更优的预报结果。  相似文献   

Seeking a handle on climate change: Examining the comparative effectiveness of energy efficiency improvement and renewable energy production in the United States     

《Global Environmental Change》2021

This study examines the comparative effectiveness of two important proposed solutions to climate change—energy efficiency improvement and the development and use of renewable energy sources. We focus specifically on their impacts on carbon dioxide emissions by conducting fixed effects regression analysis of panel data pertaining to U.S. states. The analysis reveals a negative relationship between both remedies and carbon dioxide emissions. Although the effects of these potential solutions are statistically equivalent, renewable energy production has a slight edge. Reflecting upon these findings and the larger environmental problem, we caution against exclusive reliance on efficiency improvement and renewable energy to the neglect of other important actions, such as lifestyle modifications. A broad range of social changes, which incorporate the remedies investigated in this paper, are needed to limit long-term global temperature increases to the desired level.  相似文献   

Impact of terrain complexity on the turbulence drag coefficient: A case study from the Indian Himalayan region     

《Dynamics of Atmospheres and Oceans》2021

The aerodynamic drag coefficient (C_D) is conjectured to change (or remains almost uniform) with the horizontal wind speed (U) over a flexible (or fixed) surface element, which is represented with the surface roughness (z₀). This conjecture is tested for the near neutral atmospheric turbulence (i.e. when surface stability z/L is almost equal to 0, where z is the measurement height and L is Obukhov length) of monsoon and winter season at an on-slope and a ridge-top site in the Indian Himalaya, wherein the ridge-top site is associated with a higher degree of sensitivity to the roughness element and terrain attributes. This hypothesis is successfully verified for two conditions, (i) the monsoon period observations of ridge-top site are found to have higher z₀ due to vegetative growth than the winter period for flows having similar terrain signature, and (ii) the monsoon and winter period observations of on-slope site are noted to have similar z₀ for flows having signature of steep terrain. Subsequently, constants (i.e. a and b) of the power-law relationships between C_D and U (i.e. C_D = aU^b), as a function of z₀, are optimized. It is noted that the relationship between C_D and U has higher sensitivity towards the terrain slope than the vegetative growth.  相似文献   

典型斜坡地形地震动特征分析     

丁佳龙  郝冰  李远东  周港圣  周正华 《震灾防御技术》2022,17(3):473-480

以云南鲁甸6.5级地震中房屋建筑破坏严重的龙头山集镇斜坡地形为例,通过地脉动测试分析得出斜坡及坡顶测点相对于坡脚参考点谱比峰值均＞1,顺坡向谱比峰值大于垂直坡向谱比峰值,且谱比峰值从斜坡坡脚到坡顶逐渐增大,坡顶处约为3;顺坡向谱比峰值对应的频率为4.57～5.39 Hz,垂直坡向谱比峰值对应的频率稍高,为5.42～5.96 Hz。通过结合黏弹性边界的时域动力有限元方法分析斜坡地形在垂直入射地震动作用下的响应,数值模拟结果表明,斜坡坡顶处的位移放大作用显著,坡脚处放大作用较小;介质剪切波速对斜坡地震动的影响较明显,尤其是坡顶点处不同介质剪切波速模型位移峰值差异较大。由于斜坡地形复杂的散射效应,在斜坡及附近测点均出现明显的转换面波,坡顶点处波形转换最显著。数值模拟结果进一步验证了龙头山集镇依坡而建的房屋建筑破坏严重是由局部地形地震动放大效应与地震动差动共同作用引起的。  相似文献   

Rapid report of the 8 January 2022 ​MS 6.9 Menyuan earthquake,Qinghai, China     

Hongfeng Yang  Dun Wang  Rumeng Guo  Mengyu Xie  Yang Zang  Yue Wang  Qiang Yao  Chuang Cheng  Yanru An  Yingying Zhang 《地震研究进展（英文）》2022,2(1):100113

The M_S 6.9 Menyuan earthquake in Qinghai Province, west China is the largest earthquake by far in 2022. The earthquake occurs in a tectonically active region, with a background b-value of 0.87 within 100 ?km of the epicenter that we derived from the unified catalog produced by China Earthquake Networks Center since late 2008. Field surveys have revealed surface ruptures extending 22 ?km along strike, with a maximum ground displacement of 2.1 ?m. We construct a finite fault model with constraints from InSAR observations, which showed multiple fault segments during the Menyuan earthquake. The major slip asperity is confined within 10 ?km at depth, with the maximum slip of 3.5 ?m. Near real-time back-projection results of coseismic radiation indicate a northwest propagating rupture that lasted for ～10 ?s. Intensity estimates from the back-projection results show up to a Mercalli scale of IX near the ruptured area, consistent with instrumental measurements and the observations from the field surveys. Aftershock locations (up to January 21, 2022) exhibit two segments, extending to ～20 ?km in depth. The largest one reaches M_S 5.3, locating near the eastern end of the aftershock zone. Although the location and the approximate magnitude of the mainshock had been indicated by previous studies based on paleoearthquake records and seismic gap, as well as estimated stressing rate on faults, significant surface-breaching rupture leads to severe damage of the high-speed railway system, which poses a challenge in accurately assessing earthquake hazards and risks, and thus demands further investigations of the rupture behaviors for crustal earthquakes.  相似文献   

Surface air temperature changes over the Tibetan Plateau: Historical evaluation and future projection based on CMIP6 models     

《地学前缘(英文版)》2022,13(6):101452

With its amplification simultaneously emerging in cryospheric regions, especially in the Tibetan Plateau, global warming is undoubtedly occurring. In this study, we utilized 28 global climate models to assess model performance regarding surface air temperature over the Tibetan Plateau from 1961 to 2014, reported spatiotemporal variability in surface air temperature in the future under four scenarios (SSP1-2.6, SSP2-4.5, SSP3-7.0, and SSP5-8.5), and further quantified the timing of warming levels (1.5, 2, and 3 °C) in the region. The results show that the multimodel ensemble means depicted the spatiotemporal patterns of surface air temperature for the past decades well, although with differences across individual models. The projected surface air temperature, by 2099, would warm by 1.9, 3.2, 5.2, and 6.3 °C relative to the reference period (1981–2010), with increasing rates of 0.11, 0.31, 0.53, and 0.70 °C/decade under the SSP1-2.6, SSP2-4.5, SSP3-7.0, and SSP5-8.5 scenarios for the period 2015–2099, respectively. Compared with the preindustrial periods (1850–1900), the mean annual surface air temperature over the Tibetan Plateau has hit the 1.5 °C threshold and will break 2 °C in the next decade, but there is still a chance to limit the temperature below 3 °C in this century. Our study provides a new understanding of climate warming in high mountain areas and implies the urgent need to achieve carbon neutrality.  相似文献   

Origin,discovery, exploration and development status and prospect of global natural hydrogen under the background of “carbon neutrality”     

《China Geology》2022,5(4):722-733

Global energy structure is experiencing the third transition from fossil energy to non-fossil energy, to solve future energy problems, cope with climate change, and achieve net-zero emissions targets by 2050. Hydrogen is considered to be the most potential clean energy in this century under the background of carbon neutrality. At present, the industrial methods for producing hydrogen are mainly by steam-hydrocarbon (such as coal and natural gas) reforming and by electrolysis of water, while the exploration and development of natural hydrogen had just started. According to this literature review: (1) Natural hydrogen can be divided into three categories, including free hydrogen, hydrogen in inclusions and dissolved hydrogen; (2) natural hydrogen could be mainly from abiotic origins such as by deep-seated hydrogen generation, water-rock reaction or water radiolysis; (3) natural hydrogen is widely distributed and presents great potential, and the potential natural hydrogen sources excluding deep source of hydrogen is about (254±91)×10⁹ m³/a according to a latest estimate; (4) at present, natural hydrogen has been mined in Mali, and the exploration and development of natural hydrogen has also been carried out in Australia, Brazil, the United States and some European countries, to find many favorable areas and test some technical methods for natural hydrogen exploration. Natural hydrogen is expected to be an important part of hydrogen energy production in the future energy pattern. Based on a thorough literature review, this study introduced the origin, classification, and global discovery of natural hydrogen, as well as summarized the current global status and discussed the possibility of natural hydrogen exploration and development, aiming to provide reference for the future natural hydrogen exploration and development.©2022 China Geology Editorial Office.  相似文献   

Microplastic pollution in surface water and sediments of Qinghai-Tibet Plateau: Current status and causes     

《China Geology》2021,4(1):178-184

To study the current status and causes of the microplastic pollution in surface water of the Qinghai-Tibet Plateau, this paper compared the average microplastic abundance in sediments and surface water of the Qinghai-Tibet Plateau and the results are as follows. First, the average microplastic abundance in surface water of the independent rivers and the whole area is 247–2686 items/m³ and 856 items/m³, respectively. The average microplastic abundance in sediments of independent rivers or lakes and the whole area is 0–933 items/m² and 362 items/m², respectively. Meanwhile, the degree of microplastic pollution in river sediments is higher than that in lake sediments, and the rivers suffering from microplastic pollution mainly include the Brahmaputra River, Tongtian River, and Nujiang River. Second, compared with the microplastic pollution in other areas of the world, the levelof microplastic pollution in the lakes and rivers of the Qinghai-Tibet plateau is not lower than that of well-developed areas with more intensive human activities. Finally, this study suggests that relevant government departments of the Qinghai-Tibet Plateau should strengthen waste management strategies while developing tourism and that much attention should be paid to the impacts of microplastics in the water environment.©2021 China Geology Editorial Office.  相似文献